A just released groundwater modeling report provides the dire prediction that “…much of the San Pedro and Babocomari rivers will cease to have perennial baseflow over the next century as a result of increased groundwater pumping.”
The future of the San Pedro (but picture it without all the trees)
A US Geological Survey groundwater model was used to simulate groundwater and surface water conditions in the Upper San Pedro Basin, looking at the effects of groundwater pumping, recharge, and evapotranspiration on baseflow in the San Pedro River. Climate change was not considered.
The simulated drawdown of groundwater, the merging of large cones of depression (areas where drawdown is significant), and the overall loss of storage over the 203 year period analyzed in the model provides a frightening future of water shortages in the basin.
How will the public and political leaders respond to the report?